Tag Archives: recalls

Tainted Eggs and Sticky Accelerator Pedals

We’ve had hundreds of millions of eggs recalled in the last several weeks.  That’s more eggs than there are people in the United States.  According to CNN.com, there were 1,953 cases of Salmonella enteritidis reported in a 3-month period.  Salmonella hits you hard. It can leave you sick for a week with cramps, chills, headaches, vomiting, diarrhea.  And that’s if you are healthy.  The elderly, young or folks with weaker immunity can suffer much worse.

1,953 reported cases.  Even after the recall, there could be more cases since the symptoms can hit several days after consumption of tainted eggs.  That’s a lot of sick people.

Or is it?

Another recent recall involved Toyota vehicles and the problem of accelerator pedals.  Cars accelerated out of control.  People died.  There were multiple stories carried by the media in quick succession.  Police were interviewed.  Congressional hearings were held.  A company’s reputation was at stake.

Take a look at the graph published by the Wall Street Journal that shows the “daily number of complaints about vehicle speed and accelerator pedal control” and the dates of some key events.  I am not sure what the “normal average daily complaint rate” should be, but before the warning from Toyota in late September 2009, it seem like there were fewer than 10 complaints per day.  There’s a small spike after the September warning.  The complaints seem to show a temporary peak about 6 weeks after this. In late November, Toyota announces a recall, accompanied by another spike in the days following.  Finally, in late Jan and early February 2010, there are calls to investigate the possibility of faulty electronics.  Around the time regulators officially expand the probe, the complaints spike, reaching a height of over 150 on a single day.

It’s difficult for Toyota to claim that either the drivers were becoming less careful or that the complaints were unjustified.  We have seen such PR blunders before from companies.  When a company makes such a mistake, no amount of science, facts, statistics or promises can fix the PR damage.

Back to the tainted eggs.  According the the CDC, from May to Jul, we would expect about 700 cases of Salmonella instead of 1,953.  Clearly, there is a spike associated with the eggs.  And it’s also likely that not all cases relating to the eggs have been reported.

What do you think?

Can recalls “cause” complaints?  Should companies (and organizations) revise the way recalls are done?  How should we use such statistics in setting the communications or policies regarding recalls?